§ 1.6. Permanent and Seasonal Population

Population trends and projections for Santa Rosa County are presented in Table 1-8. As indicated in the table, between 1980 and 2000, unincorporated Santa Rosa County grew at a rate of 53 to 59 percent per decade. From 2000 to 2010 the growth was around 30%, decreased from the previous two decades.

Projections for 2020, 2030 and 2040 indicate a trend towards a slightly decreased growth rate between 20 and 10 percent per decade. The County has made no population projections for individual census tracts.

Table 1-8: Population Trends and Projections

	Population Trends       Population Projections
	1980	1990	2000	2010	2020	2030	2040
Unincorporated County	42,671	68,196	104,454	136,250	162,992	190,363	210,934
% Increase per 10 years		59.00%	53.17%	30.44%	19.63%	16.79%	10.81%
Municipalities	13,317	13,412	13,289	15,122	15,108	15,637	16,166
% Increase/Decrease		0.70%	-0.92%	13.79%	-0.09%	3.50%	3.38%
Total Population	55,988	81,608	117,743	151,372	178,100	206,000	227,100
% Increase/Decrease		45.80%	44.30%	28.60%	28.60%	28.60%	28.60%

 

Source: University of Florida, Bureau of Economic and Business Research, 2014, using "medium" projections. Municipal projections completed by Santa Rosa County Planning Department using linear regression methodology.

1.6.1 Seasonal Population

Santa Rosa County has a limited tourist base comparatively speaking, however, the Navarre Beach area does experience some seasonal fluctuation. However, impacts to facilities and services are limited by the lease controlled development on the beach (see Navarre Beach Master Plan Section 1.7.2). Estimates of seasonal population were calculated by estimating the total number of tourist-related facilities within the unincorporated portion of the county and multiplying the total by the estimated occupancy rate of these facilities throughout the year 2020. The methodologies used to develop both seasonal and combined resident and seasonal population for unincorporated Santa Rosa County are described in detail in Table 1-9.

Table 1-9: Seasonal Population Projections, Santa Rosa County

	1995		2000		2010		2020
	Daily Average	Peak Season	Daily Average	Peak Season	Daily Average	Peak Season	Daily Average	Peak Season
Number of Hotel/Motel Units (1)	718		845		1,182		1,653
+ Number of Seasonal Dwelling Units (2)	639		972		972		972
Total Units	1,357		1,817		2,154		2,625
X Occupancy Rate (3)	61%	74%	61%	74%	61%	74%	61%	74%
X Persons Per Party (4)	2.6		2.6		2.6		2.6
Seasonal Population	2,152	2,611	2,882	3,496	3,416	4,144	4,163	5,051

 

Sources: (1) Florida Statistical Abstract (2010 and 2020 numbers calculated using previous year's growth rate); (2) 2000 U.S. Census of Population (1995 numbers extrapolated from 1990 and 2000 census figures); (3) Information based off monthly survey contracted by the Haas Center, UWF; (4) Numbers based off Pensacola Visitors Information Center survey (2001/2002).