§ 1.9. Land Needed to Accommodate the Projected Population

In developing the Future Land Use Map, one key consideration is to ensure that adequate land is available to accommodate the projected growth and development in Santa Rosa County through the year 2040. The following sections describe the amount of land that will be needed to accommodate the projected population for the land use categories shown on the Future Land Use Map. These calculations are based on acreage figures for existing and future land use categories produced from the Santa Rosa County Community Planning, Zoning and Development Division's GIS map.

1.9.1 Residential

The unincorporated areas of the County are expected to grow by 66,817 people (based on 2014 estimate) to a projected 2040 population of 210,934. The average household size according to the 2010 Census is 2.59, indicating that an additional 25,798 residential units will be required to accommodate the unincorporated area projected 2040 population. It is anticipated that this number represents the lower end of what can be expected since the incorporated areas are not included. It is anticipated that little growth will be accommodated in the predominately built out city of Gulf Breeze. Similarly, demand will limit growth accommodation within the City of Jay. Some growth accommodation is anticipated within in the City of Milton, however limited. The total County population is projected to be 227,100 in the year 2040, indicating the need for a total of 87,683 residential units and an additional 25,990 units by 2040, mostly within the unincorporated areas of the County.

Table 1-11 below provides an analysis of the current available residential development potential as allocated on the County's Future Land Use Map. Mixed land use categories, defined in the policies for the Future Land Use Element, establish the approximate portion of each category that will be devoted to residential development (these are allowable at 70% residential development). Even exclusive residential categories allow a small portion of the land in the category to be used for residential support facilities such as churches, schools, and specified public facilities. Each land use category has been adjusted by 25% to account for the non-residential development, infrastructure and environmental constraints in determining the actual acres available to meet the residential unit demand for 2040. Assuming near full build out of the categories allowing residential development on the current map, an additional 90,149 residential units could potentially be built, excluding lands currently designated as Agriculture or Agriculture Rural Residential, which are not expected to accommodate much future growth due to lack of available infrastructure and limited demand. This residential development potential of 90,149 units is significantly higher than the projected 2040 residential unit need of 25,990 units, however suitability analysis of the vacant lands within the County indicate approximately 50% is suitable for development. The following graphic ( Figure 1-5 ) indicates that the South End Planning Area (peninsula) contains the most vacant land designated for residential development with the Pace area very close.

Table 1-11: Residential Unit Development Potential on the Current FLUM (2014)

FLUM Category	Acres	Vacant Acres	Allowable Density	Allowable Units	Less 25% or More (Mixed Use)	Allowable Units
Single Family Residential	48,804	15,482	4 du/acre	61,928	15,482	46,446
Medium Density Residential	167	111	10 du/acre	1,110	278	833
Residential	2,875	869	18 du/acre	15,642	3,911	11,732
Garcon Point Single Family Residential	4,682	687	2 du/acre	1,374	344	1,031
Garcon Point Rural Residential	8,153	387	2 du/acre	774	193.5	581
Bagdad Historic	157	31	8 du/acre	248	62	186
Mixed Residential Commercial	3,881	948	30 du/acre	28,445	284	28,160
NB Low Density Residential	99	43	4 du/acre	172	43	129
NB Medium Density Residential	150	49	10 du/acre	490	123	368
NB Medium High Density Residential	11	2	16 du/acre	32	8	24
NB High Density Residential	40	7	30 du/acre	210	52.5	158
NB Mixed Residential Commercial	48	24	30 du/acre	720	216	504
Total:	69,067	18,640				90,149

 

Source: Santa Rosa County GIS, 2014 and Adopted Santa Rosa County Comprehensive Plan

Figure 1-5

Vacant Land (Acres) Designated for Residential Development Santa Rosa County Comprehensive Plan Future Land Use Map

1.9.2 Residential Mix

According the County's existing land use data, multi-family residential development greater than five units makes up less than 1% of total residential development within the County, with the exception of Navarre Beach which is about 35%. Data from the 2008-2012 American Community Survey (Census) indicates that approximately 11% of the total residential units within the entire County are multi-family or greater than two units. This data includes the incorporated cities and is more representative of the housing mix within the County as a whole since it includes anything beyond a single family unit. Maintaining a viable mix of housing types is an important mechanism for providing affordable housing and housing opportunities within the County. The current Future Land Use Map provides for multi-family residential development, excluding the Navarre Beach planning area, within the Medium Density Residential, Residential, and Mixed Residential Commercial Future Land Use Map categories. These categories contained approximately 1,928 vacant acres in 2014 or 10% of total vacant residential acreage excluding the Navarre Beach Planning Area. This analysis indicates that in order at least maintain the current housing mix having 11% multi-family residential, additional land (1%) designated for multi-family residential development on the Future Land Use Map would be necessary. Figure 1-6 below shows vacant lands designated for multi-family residential by planning area, and as can be seen the South End Peninsula area has by far the most land available to accommodate higher density residential development. The following Table 1-12 shows current Future Land Use Map designations for residential development types, including built units, for the growth areas of the County. Figure 1-7 shows these allocations by Planning area, with the Milton, Pace and South End areas having very close acreage designations for residential development.

Figure 1-6

Vacant Land (Acres) Designated for MF Residential Development Santa Rosa County Comprehensive Plan Future Land Use Map 2014

Table 1-12: Future Land Use Category Acreage by Planning Area and Existing Residential Units by Planning Area

Future Land Use Map Category	South End Acres	South End Units	Navarre Beach Acres	Navarre Beach Units	Garcon Point Acres	Garcon Point Units	Pace Acres	Pace Units	Milton Acres	Milton Units	East Milton Acres	East Milton Units	Total County Acres	Total County Units
Agriculture	336	97			1,060	8	30,931	1,587	27,598	1,519	13,452	1,236	300,668	8,708
Single Family Residential	17,423	17,242			281	1	10,948	10,969	15,829	7,551	1,406	588	48,804	36,441
Medium Density Residential	120	17					44	59	3	11			167	87
Residential	992	2940			349	7	1,034	1,538	797	1,644			2,875	6,190
Commercial	1,641	695			201	48	1,659	241	1,079	360	155	152	4,976	1,580
Conservation Recreation	263	0	262		3,860		15,605	1	3,721	10	24,114	1	177,762	276
Garcon Point Single Family Residential					3,290	1,100	3,942	285	713	120			4,682	1,505
Garcon Point Rural Residential					6,632	331	6,630	11	1,476	41			8,153	383
Bagdad Historic									157	202			157	202
Industrial	1,011	23			90		1,851	8	3,182	37	1,184	8	7,778	89
Military	194	0					208	0	3,355	16	1,269	0	71,155	16
Mixed Residential Commercial	2,684	3,933			448	124	1,185	1	10	0			3,881	3,934
Marina									41	27		1,236	78	27
Navarre Beach Commercial			31	5									32	5
Navarre Beach Low Density Residential			97	284									99	284
Navarre Beach Medium Density Residential			145	296									150	296
Navarre Beach Medium High Density Residential			11	104									11	104
Navarre Beach High Density Residential			39	688									40	688
Navarre Beach Mixed Residential Commercial			47	447									48	447
Navarre Beach Utilities			19	0									19	0

 

Source: Santa Rosa County GIS, 2014

Note: Total County includes acreage and units not included within a planning area—specifically the Escribano Point area west of the Eglin Preserve which is mostly government owned.

Figure 1-7

1.19.3 Commercial and Industrial

This section is intended to address the need for job creation, capital investment and economic development through analysis of the County's current Future Land Use Map allocations. In 2008, the ratio of existing commercial land to the current population was approximately 36 acres per 1,000 population for unincorporated Santa Rosa County. This number has increased to 42 acres per 1,000 population in 2014. This indicates that requests to change the Future Land Use Map designation to either Commercial or Mixed Residential Commercial have exceeded the 2008 ratio over the 2008-2014 timeframe.

The County has determined that the current ratio of industrial land to population is currently greater than the ratio of commercial land to population. The Current 2014 ratio of industrially designated lands per 1,000 population is 54 acres per 1,000 population. However, this ratio is expected to decrease by 2040 to 37 acres per 1,000 population indicating the need for additional Industrial allocation just to maintain the current ratio.

In keeping with the planning area concept and the goal of creating complete communities that better take advantage of existing transportation systems and infrastructure, Figure 1-8 below provides the commercial and industrial lands allocation by planning area. As can be seen, current Future Land Use Map allocations are nearly the same for the Pace and South End Planning areas with the largest allocation being in the Milton planning area.

Figure 1-8

Future Land Use Map Designated Acres Commercial, Industrial, and 30% of Mixed Residential/Commerical Combined

The following figure ( Figure 1-9 ) compares the commercially taxed properties in Santa Rosa County to other similarly sized Florida counties. Santa Rosa has a greater amount of commercially taxable property that Hernando, Citrus and Charlotte counties, all three of which have significantly lower median incomes than does Santa Rosa. There are several components to understanding commercial allocation including:

• Infrastructure availability and cost;

• Demographic factors such as median income, population and proximity;

• Clustering or urbanization patterns,

• Traffic patterns; and

• The availability of commercially zoned lands and the adequacy of those lands including parcel size and depth as well as location.

A more detailed study of specific planning areas within the County is possible and could be considered in the future as staffing and funding levels permit. Prioritization could be based on the number of commercial rezoning requests in a given planning area or perceived demand.

Figure 1-9

2014 Percent Commercially Taxed Property